Most losses in a draw are just the draw. It picks at random, most entries lose, and no post is going to change that. These three are different. They are the losses where the entry never counted, or counted for something you did not actually want. Every one of them is decided days before the window opens, not during it.
Why do avoidable losses happen at all?
Because all three fail quietly. None of them throws an error on the day, and two of them look exactly like ordinary bad luck from the outside.
That is the thread running through the list below. The fix in each case is something you do on a quiet afternoon, not something you can react to while a window is open.
1. Billing that never validated
This is the big one, and it is invisible until it costs you.
A profile has to validate against the payment network before it can carry an entry. That takes up to sixty seconds, and the profile turns green when it is done. A profile that is amber is a profile that is not entering, and the app will not invent an entry for it on the day.
The four failures the app reports
Address Invalid, Card Invalid, Card Expired, and a setup that sticks without finishing. The billing errors page has what each one actually means.
Address Invalid is the one worth knowing. It is almost always a mismatch with what the bank has on file, not a typo in the street name. That is why re-reading the address rarely fixes it.
When to add a profile
On a quiet afternoon. Not in the five minutes before a Kobe.
2. A size you would not actually wear
Every profile carries its own size. That flexibility is useful, and it is also how people end up with a W they do not want.
A pair in the wrong size is not a win. It is a return, a resale, or a box in a cupboard. Set sizes you would keep on every profile. Accept a smaller spread if the alternative is entering sizes you only chose because they were there.
3. A window that closed while you were deciding
Draw windows are published in advance and they are often short. Two hours on an AJ1 goes quickly if you spend ninety minutes of it deciding whether you want the pair.
So decide before the window. The calendar shows the next seven days, which is enough notice to have made up your mind. Start entries about five minutes ahead, or ten to fifteen if you are running several profiles.
What is left once you fix all three?
The draw, which was always the real opponent.
Fix all three and you still lose most of them, because that is the mechanic. What changes is that the losses are the draw’s rather than yours, and every entry you did put in actually counted.
Questions people ask
Why did my profile not enter the draw?
The most common reason is that it had not finished validating, so it was amber rather than green when the window opened. An unvalidated profile carries no entry and nothing tells you on the day.
What does Address Invalid actually mean?
Almost always a mismatch with the address your bank holds, rather than a typo in the street name. Check the billing address against your statement rather than against the address you want the parcel sent to.
How far ahead should I start my entries?
About five minutes before the window opens, or ten to fifteen if you are running several profiles. The decision about whether you want the pair should already be made by then.
Does fixing all three mean I will win?
No. Fix all three and you still lose most draws, because the pick is random and the pool is far larger than the allocation. What changes is that the losses are the draw's rather than yours.